Pfter months of intense campaigns by political parties for the Edo seat of power, the electorate will today decide who between the two major candidates, Mr Godwin Obaseki, of the APC and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, of the PDP, will steer the ship of the state for another four years.
For the PDP and its candidate, today’s elections can be said to be the last opportunity for the party to reclaim the power it lost to the APC in 2007 when it was Action Congress (AC) or be prepared to go into political oblivion.
In 2007, Edo people kissed goodbye to the ten years of the Peoples Democratic Party-led government, which included eight years under former Governor Lucky Igbinedion and another eighteen months of Professor Oserhemen Osunbor, and ushered in the now defunct Action Congress (AC) administration that later metamorphosed into the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and now the legacy parties of one All Progressives Congress (APC) which has for the past seven and half years steered the ship of the state under the stewardship of Governor Adams Eric Aliyu Oshiomhole, a former President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC).
Interestingly, the battle for Osabedey’s avenue is between two popular Benin families, the Ize-Iyamu’s and the Obaseki’s. Expectedly, the candidates have proven their determination and poise during the months of political campaigns with messages laced with offer of self-sacrifices to serve the state and its people.
The PDP candidate, having enjoyed an equal endorsement like the APC candidate, it is however expected that the economic recession under the APC-led Buhari administration may affect the way Edo electorate may vote owing the general economic down turn biting hard on Nigerians.
While for the ruling APC’s ‘change’ mantra slogan is not helping matter while the PDP’s ‘change the change’ sing song is flowing from some of flip-flop of the APC-led administration and the people are clamoring for the change the change song of the PDP.
Be that as it may, some observers are however of the view that the people are likely to vote based on their perception of the two political parties, APC and PDP which have at one time or the other, been in power. The APC during the campaign proudly reeled out records of it’s performance which are visible for all to see across the three senatorial districts.
It is however a different kettle of fish for the PDP which over the years is saddled with huge moral question hanging on it’s neck. The years the party held sway were commonly referred to the years of locust, and a sad history for the people.
The contest, no doubt, is a two-horse race for the APC’s Godwin Nogheghase Obaseki and the PDP’s Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu. One does not need much robes to sermonize that it’s payback time too either ways, for good or bad done within the folds and therefore surprises are not ruled out.
The irreconcilable quest to reap where one did not sow is the grueling war between forces of PDP governors and Oshiomhole’s APC in Edo state. Oshiomhole, as man of many battles, is set with proves of defeat to Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, former Governor Lucky Igbinedion, Chief Tom Ikimi, Chief Tony Anenih, five PDP governors from the South-South geo-political zone, even with their enormous financial war chests.
Edo is the only APC controlled state in the oil rich region and to the PDP governors, it’s a bride for a hot chase. To President Muhammadu Buhari and APC leaders and governors, Edo is key to deciding the 2019 Presidential project for the ruling party.
Beyond all calculations, one needs not be reminded that Mr. President is keen at seeing APC win the Heartbeat state and that informed his recent official visit to Edo since after his election in 2015.
At the moment, Edo south is seen as the focus and possible theatre of war in the contest. Both the APC candidate Mr. Godwin Nogheghase Obaseki and his PDP counterpart, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu come from the populous south senatorial zone with an estimated 56 percent of population of the state and seven local government areas in its kitty. Edo south is also the stronghold of Deputy Governor, Dr. Pius Odubu and national chairman of APC, Chief John Odigie Oyegun, the supportive stance of two time governor of Midwest and Bendel state, Dr. Samuel Ogbemudia and former Deputy Governor, Lucky Imasuen.
Godwin Obaseki (APC)
Strength
As Oshiomhole’s choice and trusted political ally, having served as the chairman of Edo state Economic Team and key actor in the engineering room that drives the government of the day for the past eight years, he stands the chance to ride on the back of Oshiomhole’s goodwill and achievements to emerge tops. This is despite allegations and criticisms of his imposition by some APC leaders and aspirants that contested the party’s ticket. Of course, Oshiomhole has the right just like any other to make choices. Obaseki with fresh ideas and unadulterated disposition to governance as well as strong skills in investment drive for growth and enhanced welfare through empowerment programmes as well as industrialization and reach to big financial heavy weights across the country, has the fullest support of both APC national leadership, state and key political actors, professionals and business magnates and industrialists in the governorship project. The pedigree and understanding of economy of the APC gubernatorial candidate is also another sterling factor that may sway many votes in his favour, especially, given the country’s present economic recession. Indeed, he intends to create 200,000 job in the first four years while in office with a well-defined programme for the women through micro-credit schemes to enable them expand their trade and businesses.
Besides, the party’ leadership and members are also united in the onerous task to deliver the party and its candidate which informed the peace committee that worked assiduously to assuage the pains of all aggrieved members who had before now threatened to work against the party.
Also, for the simple reason that the APC controls the power at the centre, it is evident that its not the wish of Edo state to be in opposition with the federal, unlike its past experience during the ex-President Goodlcuk Jonathan’s administration in which the state was denied huge ecological funds.
Furthermore, it is hoped that block votes from Edo north which is Oshiomhole’s political power base added to his numerous strides in the area and reasonable chunk from Chief Tony Anenih’s central senatorial zone boost Mr. Obaseki victory. In the south senatorial district with its 58 per cent of the voting population; Oshiomhole’s performance index and the large support of the ancient palace as well as various groups will root out the PDP. Oshiomhole’s sizzling feat has eqarned him as the political gd of Afemai people in Edo North due to the developmental strides he brought to the area. The senatorial district controls about 26 per cent of the state voting population and the recent ceding of the deputy governorship slot to the area makes much impact too seeing their own Hon Phillip Shaibu, the Deputy governorship candidate in the race, and in the process gives the APC a smooth sail in the area.
However, PDP commands huge popularity in the Central zone too with the likes of Chief Anthony Anenih, Chief Tom Ikimi, Mike Onolemenme, Senator Clifford Odia, Senator Odion Ugbesia, and others, except for Senator (Prof.) Oserheimen Osunbor who is now an APC chieftain.
Weakness
Critics are of the view that Obaseki, a renowned investment expert, banker and politician is Oshiomhole’s stooge and may be tele-guided by the outgoing governor if he becomes the governor of the state. There is also the fear that Obaseki’s government may not be disposed to professional politicians and hawks in government with penchant for juicy contracts and sumptuous largess. It is further considered that the growing economic recession biting already aggrieved citizens of the nation under President Buhari’s administration may be a big blow for the party’s candidate at the poll.
Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu
Generally, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu is seen as a grassroots politician and one who has seen it all in the politics of Edo state. He is a pastor with the Redeemed Christian Church of God and one of the key actors of the then PDP led government in the state. He served as former Chief of Staff (COS) and later Secretary to the Edo State Government (SSG) during the eight years administration of ex-Governor Lucky Igbinedion (1999 and 2007). As a kitchen cabinet member of the Igbinedion government and arrowhead, he was reputed as championing the cause of the Grace Group, a splinter body that rebelled against the seeming dictatorial tendencies of Chief Tony Anenih in the state chapter of the PDP following an internal crisis in the heat of the Igbinedion’s second term in office. Before his nomination as candidate of PDP, he was an erstwhile National Vice Chairman, South-South zone of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria and later APC member. Ize-Iyamu played a key role n the government of Governor Adanms Oshiomhole as one of the point men during the first term and served as director-general of Oshiomhole’s campaign organization for his reelection. The gargantuan politician later fell out of favour with Oshiomhole and moved back to the PDP with his crowd of loyalists. He later became the coordinator of former President Goodluck Jonathan/Sambo Campaign Organization for the South-South zone in 2015.
Strength
Pastor Ize-Iyamu’s foresight and deep rooted political activism stretches across many quarters and is considered a strong factor in the politics of the state. This is basically dawn from his master strokes in ability to dislodge strongholds and his aura to command multitude of followership. As an octopus he has his tentacles spread across other political circles where his secret influence has played roles that break the jinx of forces whose stands pose as hard nuts to crack. This is also seen in the religious circle because of his dept and understanding of the inner workings of political actors in the APC and PDP.
He is favourably disposed to the growing antics of South-South PDP governors to dislodge the APC in Edo state, a secret but open plot that has sparked a deadly battle between forces of both the APC and the PDP in the country. Besides, it is feared that massive votes may be swayed in his favour in sympathy because of the country’s retrogressive economic fortunes. Ize-Iyamu has within the periods of the running campaign across the state reeled out explosive and damning message to the people in Edo central whih centered on alleged marginalization of the area by the Oshiomhole administration and had asked the people to use their PVCs to give victory to PDP. In addition, the APC led government may face a tough time securing the hearts of voters in some of the local government areas, especially, where workers in the third tier of government are being owed months of arrears of salaries even though government had refuted reports of not owing the council workers. Same goes for pensioners, although, positive action is being taken by the APC led government to wriggle itself out of the seeming snag. Pensioners are now heaving sighs of relief as their names have been captured in the state pension scheme to enable them receive their pensions alongside civil servants in the state as well as local government workers.
Weakness
Aside the opposition party’s ferocious attacks and expose against the government of the day, Ize-Iyamu is facing the tough and storm he stirred while in government. His inseparable link with the Igbinedion dynasty and politics is not giving him the leverage. Also, the eight years of the government he served and played active role as COS and SSG respectively till today, to critics and analysts, is seen as the locust years and most wasteful due to the huge resources that were allegedly frittered away with little to show for it. The PDP governorship candidate has made positive efforts to debunk the allegations and to exonerate himself from any damning accusations.
Again, the yet to be healed wounds arising from the internal crisis trailing the national leadership of the PDP has given a hard knock on his chance at the poll. Though, the INEC recognizes him as the party’s candidate, the ticket is torn between Ize-Iyamu and the Modu Sheriff factional candidate, Hon. Mathew Iduoriyekewem. In addition, the age long festering crisis and loss of confidence within the opposition have combined to force most PDP faithful to defect to the APC over alleged imposition and lack of purposeful leadership. Among the eggheads of te PDP who have bid bye to it and now have abiding faith in the APC are the likes of Dr. Samuel Ogbemudia, former deputy governor Lucky Imasuen, ex-Governor Oserheimen Osunbor and several others leaders and members from across the state.
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